Swing to Labor if it supports marriage equality
Labor can expect a swing in its favour of almost 5% if it supports marriage equality, a new national poll has found.
The poll by Galaxy Research found almost half of Greens voters and a third of young voters would be more likely to vote for the ALP if it adopted a new policy allowing same-sex couples to marry.
It also found almost a quarter of voters who already support Labor will be stronger supporters if the Party backs marriage equality.
Australian Marriage Equality national convener Alex Greenwich said the poll shows Labor will experience a net gain in votes by supporting marriage equality.
“By doing the right thing on marriage equality Labor can expect to be rewarded by voters, largely at the expense of the Greens,” Greenwich said.
“For Labor, marriage equality is an electoral winner because it is a reform that will cost nothing, attract votes from other parties, and promote loyalty among existing voters.
“With polls consistently showing support for marriage equality is almost twice that of the Labor Party, the ALP could do worse than to allow the popularity of marriage equality to rub off on it.”
According to the Galaxy poll, the overwhelming majority of Coalition voters will not be turned off Labor if it supports marriage equality.
“[There] is a small minority of Coalition voters who will look more dimly on Labor if it supports marriage equality but they are hard-core opponents of the issue who Labor can never hope to win over,” Greenwich said.
“Support for marriage equality will enable the ALP to reach out to large numbers of winnable voters, while not alienating those who are largely indifferent to the issue.”
Greenwich said Labor cannot expect to pick up nearly as many Greens or young voters if, as flagged in recent reports, it only allows a conscience vote on the issue instead of changing its policy to fully support reform.
“If reports are correct and the Prime Minister is about to announce her support for a conscience vote on marriage equality, it shows the campaign for equality is working,” Greenwich said.
“Like many members of the Labor Party we want the Party to go further than a conscience vote and adopt a binding policy in favour of marriage equality at its national conference in December.
“If the ALP settles for a conscience vote it will limit the ALP’s ability to deliver this historic reform, and will have much more limited appeal to Green and young voters than a binding party policy.”
The national Galaxy research poll of 1009 registered voters was commissioned by Australian Marriage Equality and conducted this month.
It asked: “If the Labor Party officially supported same-sex marriage, would you be more likely to vote Labor, less likely to vote Labor, or would your vote not be affected?”
Influential union leader Joe de Bruyn has previously claimed that allowing same-sex marriage would be politically disastrous for the Gillard Government and that a change to Labor鈥檚 current position would lose seats for the party, especially in Queensland.
“According to the Galaxy poll, the overwhelming majority of Coalition voters will not be turned off Labor if it supports marriage equality.”
This is the crucial counterpart, because it suggests that if the Liberals maintain opposition to marriage equality in their manifesto, they won’t attract a comparable 5% swing in the opposite direction from Labor.
I do believe however that even though there is reasonable majority support for marriage equality, that support would not convert into desertion if the issue never made it to parliament. In other words, most don’t mind us getting married, but they’re not so devastated if we don’t get married that they would overlook other priorities like employment, health, public order and taxes.
Most Australians don’t care about “Gay Marriage”
They care about:
*interest rates!
*unemployment rates !
*job security !
Hip pocket, bread and butter issues…as most of Australia don’t live in the Gay Ghetto…sad but true :(
The Carbon Tax is a Liberal Party policy. I am so glad the Greens reduced this from what Tony Abbott originally wanted. He broke his promises on many things before, so no doubt he will increase the Carbon Tax if elected.
I think we need to have a hate tax. There is a cost to society of those against the Civil Rights of GLBTI people, from suicides, to violent attacks as the result of discrimination, the cost is in the billions.
Brenton,
Now seriously,70% of the Nation does not want a Carbon Tax now or ever.you do know that this tax ( Forced on to Gilliard) by Bobby will hit a lot of Gay People where it hurts,their wallets & purses.From dining out on Oxford street to paying the weekly shopping bill,all brought on by the Greens.
I personally do not like the Labour or Liberal Party,one bought in the Carbon Tax,the other wanted Work Choices (contracts).
It’s all fun and games at the moment,but July 1st 2012 when the new tax comes in and jump in Utilities arrives knocking,you just watch how many queens can’t afford to live in the city.
All courtesy of the Greens.
thanks
I voted Greens strictly because of gay marriage – no other reason.
I will vote Greens again, for the same reason, until it is signed, sealed, and delivered. When you get right down to it, there is really very little between the ALP and Labor with Julia and Tony. My partner really doesn’t like the Greens, but also voted for them. We do agree they have some real odd people in the party, but… The more viable they become as a party, the more likely they are to get higher quality people to run for office.
Mark of Sydney, sorry to disappoint but I and many of my friends will continue to vote for the Greens, as well as thousands of other Australians will continue to do so, likewise millions of people in overseas countries!
Who I wont vote for are the ‘Loony Right” with their entrenched policies of homophobia and endless conservatism! Something which I have fought against all of my life!
People who always talk about money tend to have none, it is very boring and also the fiscal moaners usually don’t want to pay any tax or contribute anything to society and the community, only wanting to stash it all up for themselves!
I’m for gay marriage and equality,But who in the right mind would vote for Labour or the Loony Greens,
When ever I think of them I think of the dreaded Carbon Tax,18% Electricity Bills and that annoying winging Sarah Hansen-Young sobbing how illegal Boat People should be here courtesy of the Tax Payer.
Not Happy Jan
I will never vote labor or liberal again.
Queensland actually has a very high percentage of people who support gay marriage. Joe de Bruyn is clearly trying to drum up a scare campaign driven by his own ignorance.
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I will never vote for the ALP again because if they cannot do what was right – that is give same sex couples a choice when this issue was raised the only reason they would be doing anything baout it now is to gain votes.
i still dont think it will save Labor, they’re too far gone
But the far right Catholic SDA Union wants Tony Abbott to win. Logic does not dictate the policies of Labor, Cardinal Pell does.
Already the far right Catholics in charge of Gillard are sinking this with a conscience vote.
We are not even afforded basic protections in the Federal Equal Opportunity Act. Labor could at any time, deliver this, but has chosen to make our birth a punishment. Remember it was Labor and Liberal that ganged up to change the Marriage Act, to exclude you in the first place.
It is no wonder Labor reflects the mess and contradictions of the Catholic Church on issues of sexuality, they are simply a political faction of the Catholic Church, not the party of the good ordinary folk.
All will be much clearer after the conference in December.